Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 16.024755 18.632682 21.477362 24.803640 28.578955 32.723204 37.609077
2024-10-13 11.970826 15.547184 19.831381 25.308160 32.086428 40.160519 50.462487
2024-10-20 9.258986 13.247141 18.427265 25.568249 35.063288 47.149414 63.574327
2024-10-27 7.398904 11.534491 17.300875 25.783496 37.767880 53.888647 76.959740
2024-11-03 6.526694 10.949674 17.498281 27.667584 42.768980 64.012076 95.699865
2024-11-10 5.686439 10.213418 17.296782 28.851128 46.793572 73.054585 113.678530
2024-11-17 4.983654 9.539406 17.041566 29.841669 50.537496 81.922086 132.062422
2024-11-24 4.187265 8.543254 16.090286 29.548493 52.179325 87.690580 146.197741
2024-12-01 3.420484 7.443169 14.776094 28.436467 52.306654 91.023730 156.730738
2024-12-08 2.833034 6.561043 13.695984 27.549497 52.645353 94.623438 167.840032
2024-12-15 2.479352 6.074393 13.261781 27.739250 54.809152 101.321337 184.390733
2024-12-22 2.146850 5.564566 12.700017 27.601562 56.338050 107.013660 199.605156
2024-12-29 1.998653 5.450272 12.941259 29.094369 61.101717 118.841114 226.448578
2025-01-05 1.775578 5.118202 12.683992 29.569778 64.012051 127.656492 248.770545
2025-01-12 1.565571 4.772629 12.343284 29.826624 66.518238 135.931655 270.730978
2025-01-19 1.382782 4.455245 12.013466 30.056909 68.978817 144.288865 293.395431
2025-01-26 1.337881 4.500830 12.534201 32.207421 75.544741 160.844869 332.218622
2025-02-02 1.249100 4.403244 12.694118 33.558443 80.554353 174.741609 366.903292
2025-02-09 1.157020 4.275202 12.757830 34.689629 85.187053 188.202344 401.559798
2025-02-16 1.008682 3.938224 12.231951 34.354125 86.587452 195.318206 424.388166
2025-02-23 0.844000 3.503449 11.370823 33.082594 85.764827 197.844613 438.333788
2025-03-02 0.713293 3.144929 10.653382 32.067938 85.407010 201.265670 454.221906
2025-03-09 0.639592 2.968550 10.424879 32.285009 87.932319 210.899663 483.248946